Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 22.315661 24.299382 26.449530 28.965537 31.844693 35.055531 38.933810
2025-10-05 19.189438 21.873317 24.988144 28.917908 33.813408 39.808495 47.864193
2025-10-12 17.077334 20.171883 23.963833 29.055840 35.884394 44.994182 58.574546
2025-10-19 15.588717 18.958120 23.277767 29.398673 38.167896 50.847949 71.819149
2025-10-26 14.230295 17.705303 22.323020 29.159949 39.518137 55.599957 84.912910
2025-11-02 13.150567 16.678477 21.511638 28.946469 40.790042 60.439812 99.860693
2025-11-09 12.316382 15.887516 20.915029 28.923585 42.296015 65.962989 118.366930
2025-11-16 11.577420 15.152023 20.303987 28.766360 43.508610 71.220503 138.851038
2025-11-23 10.943198 14.506773 19.751668 28.610014 44.662285 76.634260 162.760367
2025-11-30 10.379818 13.916917 19.221054 28.408176 45.673832 82.014143 190.162179
2025-12-07 9.929203 13.459161 18.849501 28.420663 47.078818 88.663217 226.744876
2025-12-14 9.500368 13.002315 18.436420 28.302602 48.190786 94.974935 268.364809
2025-12-21 9.311911 12.913605 18.627817 29.331813 51.970809 109.682493 365.055651
2025-12-28 8.884909 12.421856 18.110968 28.979317 52.686541 116.447768 437.367688
2026-01-04 8.553383 12.062089 17.789345 28.965680 54.188384 126.288314 551.598397
2026-01-11 8.294646 11.803304 17.619676 29.229759 56.417226 139.649032 737.636796
2026-01-18 7.973801 11.423289 17.208110 28.954811 57.256717 148.770068 931.526875
2026-01-25 7.684987 11.080362 16.837883 28.724545 58.176060 158.828043 1205.776274
2026-02-01 7.446000 10.807841 16.575071 28.692410 59.631967 172.072439 1666.566562
2026-02-08 7.206747 10.522262 16.268619 28.532270 60.709623 184.569921 2327.294532
2026-02-15 6.984388 10.254461 15.977467 28.375408 61.777154 197.984038 3405.979354
2026-02-22 6.771162 9.992251 15.680264 28.174792 62.685945 211.529166 5227.116731
2026-03-01 6.597263 9.790204 15.484344 28.186542 64.268811 230.373349 9689.240945